This research paper provides the calculation of estimated economic costs of traffic congestion in the Kathmandu valley. This research paper based on the various literatures. The focus of this research to examine traffic congestion cost related with economic road passenger, transportation, depreciation, corban emission and excess fuel. Beside these the economic health position and indirect costs to all sectors. Its small mirror of economic and socio-economic activities of Kathmandu valley. Households and vehicles are increasing rapidly in Kathmandu valley it has direct relation between them as a result traffic congestion appear. The traffic congestion reduces the productivity level of goods and services. Traffic congestion is the symbol of economic inefficiency. This research present estimation congestion cost. The process of estimation of congestion includes data collection to analysis of productivity time loss, excess fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emission, physical and mental stress and more. This study helps to convert all data to monetary value. Each elements of calculation method are explained and purposed based on the data and literature reviews.
Although it is debatable topic of economy. It is assumed that traffic congestion is the not a long run problem. Traffic congestion is the huge problems of developing countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka. In Kathmandu valley it is the dangerous and unsolved problem. Congestion can take various forms but in Kathmandu valley there are two types of congestion can be noted. That is recurring and nonrecurring congestion. Recuring congestion means the traffic volume on the road is exceeds its capacity and the nonrecurring congestion means caused by unpredictable temporary events like accidents, road construction, unfavorable weather etc. The economy of Nepal is highly depending upon few cities, but the Kathmandu is the most. Price level increases in Kathmandu valley somewhat depends upon traffic congestion too. Most significant factors contribution to the problem is poor city planning, inappropriate public transport, inefficient traffic system etc. the demand of private automobiles and high uses of the vehicle is the root cause of traffic congestion in Kathmandu valley. Inappropriate public transport service level and undeveloped government transportation system causes private motorized transport share has increased. The government and public investment in road capacity improvement is not adequate and feasible on the against of growth of traffic volume in valley the result has been seen traffic congestion. Thus, it is important to estimate the economic value of traffic congestion of the valley context which will help policy making of central government and related local government (Kathmandu, Lalitpur and Bhaktapur) in resource allocation in road infrastructure investment.
The traffic congestion cost elements and calculation method quite difficult so it is in estimated form. Cost of travel time delay imposes to users (passenger as well freight), cost of travel time unreliability in passenger transportation, cost of excess fuel consumption in vehicular transportation, the associate cost of CO-2 emissions due to excess fuel consumption, cost of physical and mental stress due to congestion. According to experts, in peak hour traffic flow average speed of Kathmandu valley is 14 km/hours and the normal time the average speed of traffic flow is 32 km/h whare as night average flow of traffic is 55 km/h. According to the department of transport and management 73 % of private vehicle increased in Kathmandu valley in last year. Last 10 years 400% private vehicle are increased. 50% of total vehicles increased only in Kathmandu valley. 120000 vehicles play on street of Kathmandu valley everyday half of these are two-wheeler. 4073-kilometer road is black topped out of 13,232 km road. In dry season dust and haze envelope the roads.
Nonrecurring traffic congestion found in Kathmandu valley especially traffic incidents, weather, fluctuations in demand, work zones, road construction, without notice road blockade, brokage of water supply, dumping construction materials on roadside, demonstrator/rally/activist/protester/strike on road, security check, random bus/minibus/microbus stop, random pedestrian crossing, special events, vehicle breakdown, traffic control devices, inadequate base capacity etc… The cost of each part calculating in different ways in term of monetary values.
Objectives of Research
This research aims to
- Conduct a literature search on direct and indirect cost of congestion in Kathmandu valley.
- Know about the estimation cost of congestion of upcoming years in Kathmandu valley.
- Know about additional time absorbed in delays caused by congestion and its economic cost calculation.
- Estimation of recurring congestion economic cost and concept through no of vehicles and road as well infrastructure too.
- Estimation of nonrecurring congestion in term of economic values or monetary values of additional cost such as depreciation of vehicle, additional fuel, repair and maintenance etc.…
- Estimation of the extra cost of production-based industries of Kathmandu valley causes of congestion.
Literature of Review
Research literature on economics of congestion in Kathmandu valley is rarely found. Research on economic cost of traffic congestion was carried out by few researchers using different methodologies. This paper presents a widespread review of the literature on measuring the economic costs of road traffic congestion. Research literature can be categorized according to data collection method. Collected data analysis based on the few benchmarks, these are traffic flow volume analysis, congestion level, traffic mixed distribution, field data analysis. The researcher has used description statistics of simple average to evaluate primary and secondary data.
Research Design or Methodology
Primary data was obtained from department of transport management and individual informant. Travel delays from recurring/nonrecurring traffic congestion is estimated by volume and speed. The calculation processor through the managed by expert’s method. The data are taken from direct authentic source via all types of research communication as well website too.
- Estimate the daily volume of vehicle (Normal, Peak and Night hours)
- Calculate peak period volume.
- Calculate daily vehicle travelled.
- Average speed of vehicles on different hours
- Estimate economic cost of free flow time and speed as well congestion time and speed.
- Estimate daily recurring vehicle hours.
- Calculating economic cost loss of carbon dioxide emission.
- Calculating economic cost of health impact in daily wise.
- Calculate volume to capacity ratio
- Calculate roadways design speed of vehicles.
- Calculate no of accidents
- Calculate Vehicles breakdowns
- Calculate security checks
- Calculate random mini/micro/truck/taxi/bus stops
- Calculate Random walker crossing
- Calculate delay of road construction
- Calculate without notice road blockade
- Calculate construction material dumping roadside
- Calculate activist, rally, demonstrate, protest on road
Salaries in Kathmandu range from 22,000 NPR per month (minimum salary) to 388,000 NPR per month (maximum average salary, actual maximum is higher). The average salary of Kathmandu valley is Rs. 3,70,000 which is Rs. 30,833 per month. If there is 25 days of working, then the average salary of day is Rs. 1233 which means Rs. 154 / hour assumed 8 hours a day. This research is based on the average salary of a person in Kathmandu valley. These are the research topics and findings. The structure of Kathmandu valley is different than other cities. The research found that the various essential magnificent facts of traffic. Like traffic index, average walking time etc. the research helps to making policy to three layers government (Central, State and Local) to reduce traffic congestion of urban development plan, new city development plan, vehicle selling and renewable policy etc. it finds various facts for planning further in this field.
Traffic Index = 111.62
Time index (in minutes) = 37.16 minutes
Inefficiency index = 113.88
Average walking = 17.50 min
Waiting public vehicle time = 7.25 min
Overall travel in public vehicles = 49.17 min
Average driving car time = 35 min
Average riding motorbike time = 30.17 min (field-based work)
Average riding motorbike time = 15.67min
Travel time = 37.18 min
Distance = 8.94 km
Estimate Total Cost of Congestion
This is the reference table of traffic congestion effects of digital economics in Kathmandu valley.
|Topics||Daily Cost (NPR)||Yearly Cost (NPR)|
|Excess Fuel Cost||7,747,470||2,827,826,550|
|Vehicle depreciation cost||90,926,444||33,188,152,000|
|Excess traffic management cost||521,077||190,193,360|
|Excess cost of road maintenance||985,600||359,744,000|
NPR 120 = $1
Assumed that the average working hours = 8
then average cost of congestion per hour is NPR 39,865,647
Kathmandu Valley fuel Consumption Data
The fuel consumption data of Kathmandu valley is surprising. 46%of patrol and 16% of diesel consumed in Kathmandu valley of total sales in Nepal. The given table is the mirror of fuel consumption in Kathmandu.
|Fiscal year||Petrol in Kiloliters||46% consume||Diesel in Kiloliters||16% consumes|
Kathmandu Valley no of Vehicle Data
No of new vehicle registration Bagmati Province
|Year||No of vehicle|
Accident of Kathmandu Valley Data
Annual Accidental Description
|S.N.||Fiscal Year||No. of Accident||Fatality||Serious Accident||Normal Accident|
Length of Road in Kathmandu valley
The road length of Kathmandu valley (Kathmandu, Lalitpur and Bhaktapur) is 13232km. there are three categories of road types, I. e. Black topped, graveled and muddy.
|Types of road||Kilometer||Percentage|
Vehicle Trip Pattern of Kathmandu Valley
This vehicle trips are estimated data of 2019. Trip generation rate is average no of trip made by one person in a day in Kathmandu valley.
|Purpose||Estimated No of Trips 2019 bases on JICA report||Percentage|
|Travel Mode||Estimated No of Trips||Percentage|
Average trip length of motorcycle = 13.8 km
Average trip length of car = 17.7 km
Average trip length of Bus = 12.03 km
Average trip length of Bus =12 km
Average trip length of Taxi =20 km
Average trip length of others =10 km
Average trip length of walk = 1.4 km
Average no of passengers per vehicle
- Motorcycle = 1.1
- Car = 1.9
- Taxi = 2.3
- Buses (Micro, mini…) = 11.7
- Truck (light, Heavy…) = 1.9
- Total Average = 1.7
Revenue of Government from Renewable Process of Vehicles in Kathmandu Valley
|Office||Kathmandu valley (all offices)|
|Small vehicle tax||4,979,032,235|
|Road construction and maintenance tax||5,306,826,738|
|License and vehicle permission tax||979,017,931|
|Embossed plate tax||19,568,194|
|Transportation area income||186,956,715|
Estimation of Time Delay Cost (One Day)
|Particulars||Time Delay||No||Delay hours||Total Delay cost @154/h|
|General walker||7 min (.116 hours)||1,85,000||21,460*1||3,304,840|
|Motorbikes||21 min (.35 hours)||1,55,000||54,250 *1.1||9,189,950|
|Cars||27 min (.45 hours)||29,000||13,050*1.9||3,818,430|
|Bus/minibus/microbus||33 min (.55 hours)||6,700||3,685*11.7||6,639,633|
|Truck||34 min (.566 hours)||1,800||1,019*1.9||298,160|
|Taxi||28 min (.466 hours)||2,500||1,165*2.3||412,643|
|Others||33 min (.55 hours)||6, 000||3,300*2||1,016,400|
Calculation based on average income of an hour i. e. 154/h. and based on travel mode of one person. and average person per vehicle is given above.
Estimation of Excess Fuel Cost (One Day)
|Types of Vehicle||No of Vehicles||Fuel Consumption||Normal fuel Consumption without Congestion||Excess fuel In liter||Total Cost @110 & 90|
Calculation is based on the average milage of two-wheeler is 26 KM/L, car 8 km/l, bus, truck 3.6 km/l,
Whare as without congestion it is assumed that two-wheeler 40km/l, car 12km/l, bus, truck 5km/l
Formula for fuel consumption = Vehicle no * km traveled/milage
Estimation of Emission Cost
The cost of carbon pollution is very hard to calculate in term of flooding, deadly storms, spread of disease, food insecurity, other may types of disaster. The Global share of Nepal is 0.027%. The Kathmandu valley CO2 emission is 7.23 million ton every year. 38.7% of it from transport. Which is equal to 27980100 tons. Based on traffic congestion data 42% of CO2 emission of transport due to congestion which is 11751642. According to IMF data carbon cost of per ton is $50 which is equivalent to NPR 6000.
Extra CO2 emission of transport in Kathmandu valley.
|Time period||Quantity||Estimated rate /ton||Total|
|Estimation – 2022/day||37,270||6000||223,620,000|
Data based on 2019
Estimation of Vehicle Depreciation Cost
Kathmandu valley registered vehicle and its estimated depreciation
|Types of vehicle||No of vehicle (Good condition)||Average value of vehicle||Actual depreciation cost||Normal depreciation cost without congestion||Excess depreciation cost (4%)|
|Car, Minibus, Bus, Truck, etc.||237,579||3,000,000||24%||20%||28,509,480,000|
Estimation of Health Problem Cost
It is calculated based on patient which affected by air pollution and traffic congestion-based effects in health. It is calculated on Kathmandu valley. Annual flow of patient is 2838912 and 6% out of them is suffering caused by traffic congestions affects.
|Actual yearly Patient||Normal Patient (without Congestion)||Excess Patient||Average Cost per Patient||Excess Patient Cost|
Health care index= 56.76
Health care system index = 57.94 (System satisfaction)
Health care expenses index = 99.44
Estimation excess traffic management manpower cost
Kathmandu traffic police have only one mission that is “Safe, dignified, systematic and technological vehicle management in Kathmandu Valley” and its values and beliefs are – Strictness in law enforcement, conduct, and politeness in practice, Priority in road safety, need for public awareness, Pollution-free and technological traffic management, The efforts of the concerned bodies, the practice of traffic rules. But in Kathmandu valley there are 1084 posting of traffic police. Which is quite more for such a Kathmandu valley if there is no congestion.
|Actual Manpower||Normal Manpower (without Congestion)||Excess Manpower||Average Salary of Manpower/month||Excess Manpower Cost|
Daily excess cost = NPR 5,21,077
Yearly excess cost = NPR 19,01,93,360
Estimation of excess cost of road maintenance
Including electricity manpower, telecommunication manpower, water supply manpower, sanitary management manpower, cable management manpower and such others directly related with road congestion. There is no environment of maintenance in daytime as well night too.
|Actual Time/Day||Normal Time (without Congestion)||Excess Time/D||Average Salary of Manpower||Excess Cost /Day|
|1800*8 =14,400 hours||1000*8 = 8000||6400||154||985,600|
Annual accidental cost
The annual accident cost calculated on the government average paying rate. The data is in annually, so the calculation amount is in year.
|Types of accident||No||Due to traffic congestion||Government average rate||Total|
Photos of Kathmandu valley congestion sides
Jayasoorya and Bandara 2017, A research paper on ‘Measuring the economic cost of traffic congestion’ – University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka.
Neema Davis 2015, ‘Congestion costs incurred on Indian roads: A case study for New Delhi – Indian Institutes of Technology Madras, India.
Cairo Traffic congestion Study, Final report 2011, ‘Estimation of direct economic cost of traffic congestion in Cairo
Allan G. Bluman 2018, Elementary Statistics – A step by step approach, 7nd Edition, Boston, Mc Graw Hill.
website of Central Bureau of Statistics of Nepal https://cbs.gov.np/
website of Ministry of Health and Population of Nepal https://www.mohp.gov.np/eng/
website of Traffic Police of Nepal https://traffic.nepalpolice.gov.np/
website of Health Office Kathmandu, Nepal http://dphokathmandu.gov.np/eng/
website of Ministry of Education and Science and Technology, Nepal https://moe.gov.np/
websites of Departments of Roads, Nepal https://www.dor.gov.np/home